Extremely well written, and well thought out. You could become a technology journalist, futurist or technology mutual fund manager if you so choose! Perhaps all three!
Have loved reading these since the beginning! Are you considering AI to mean roughly "language models" or counting on even more scientific progress to come?
If we want to be specific about the current wave of AI, it's all about modeling language-like tasks (don't get me wrong, it's amazing how many tasks fall into this category) but still not the same as "computers that are similar to the human brain". I could imagine another AI breakthrough in 10 years that expands AI's capabilities to a totally new class of tasks (e.g. reinforcement learning for robots that physically move through the world, like a robot chef with mechanical arms in a restaurant). The word AI is so broad though.
Thanks, Keyur! Today I'm definitely thinking broader than just language models (automated cybersecurity agents or computer vision feeding autonomy vehicles are just two examples), but not factoring in any future innovation into this analysis. I would imagine "computers that are similar to the human brain" is a MUCH larger TAM (maybe global GDP?) but it is really cool to think about. I agree with you that we're still a long ways off from that moment though.
Another great write up! I agree to your point that AI is a furthering mechanism vs. a pure platform shift like mobile / cloud / internet. Could be wrong and many use cases are likely still unknown! Either way - exciting time to be alive :)
Extremely well written, and well thought out. You could become a technology journalist, futurist or technology mutual fund manager if you so choose! Perhaps all three!
Thank you, Davis! I'm glad you liked it!
Have loved reading these since the beginning! Are you considering AI to mean roughly "language models" or counting on even more scientific progress to come?
If we want to be specific about the current wave of AI, it's all about modeling language-like tasks (don't get me wrong, it's amazing how many tasks fall into this category) but still not the same as "computers that are similar to the human brain". I could imagine another AI breakthrough in 10 years that expands AI's capabilities to a totally new class of tasks (e.g. reinforcement learning for robots that physically move through the world, like a robot chef with mechanical arms in a restaurant). The word AI is so broad though.
Thanks, Keyur! Today I'm definitely thinking broader than just language models (automated cybersecurity agents or computer vision feeding autonomy vehicles are just two examples), but not factoring in any future innovation into this analysis. I would imagine "computers that are similar to the human brain" is a MUCH larger TAM (maybe global GDP?) but it is really cool to think about. I agree with you that we're still a long ways off from that moment though.
Another great write up! I agree to your point that AI is a furthering mechanism vs. a pure platform shift like mobile / cloud / internet. Could be wrong and many use cases are likely still unknown! Either way - exciting time to be alive :)
Yeah this is the big piece of the AI equation I'm still wrestling with - true platform shift or not. Going deeper on this in my next post!